Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Uniquewin 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Qqwerty44loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
qwerty44
Invokeroften banned
USHUSHUSH · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
USHUSHUSH · 2 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Fezor · 2 games
Grimstroke
Fezor · 2 games
Hoodwink
Fezor · 2 games
Lunaoften banned
Kom4rt · 2 games
Winter Wyvern
Fezor · 2 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Fezor · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
386 picks · 167 bans
Hoodwink
353 picks · 128 bans
Dragon Knight
261 picks · 347 bans
Nyx Assassin
258 picks · 521 bans
Lina
251 picks · 407 bans
Winter Wyvern
248 picks · 242 bans
Luna
247 picks · 332 bans
Puck
236 picks · 541 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 42%
Hero pool strength58% Team Unique
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Team Unique
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:36
Team Unique 69%qwerty44 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Unique — the game was taken by qwerty44 in 42:29.
Game 2prediction missed43:11
Team Unique 69%qwerty44 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Unique — the game was taken by qwerty44 in 36:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Unique · 69%
Series resultTeam Unique 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2