Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Uniquewin 2:1series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Spider Pigzsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
Spider Pigzs
Grimstroke
LeBronDota · 15 games
Death Prophetoften banned
No!ob · 12 games
Clockwerk
Fervian · 11 games
Lunaoften banned
lil pleb · 11 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
dnz · 11 games
Shadow Shaman
dnz · 11 games
Void Spiritoften banned
No!ob · 11 games
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
415 picks · 167 bans
Ancient Apparition
312 picks · 467 bans
Mars
311 picks · 522 bans
Nyx Assassin
301 picks · 618 bans
Puck
296 picks · 725 bans
Snapfire
275 picks · 153 bans
Enchantress
272 picks · 354 bans
Tiny
261 picks · 213 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Team Unique
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Team Unique
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:22
Team Unique 54%Spider Pigzs 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Unique — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 25:18.
Game 2prediction missed6:30
Team Unique 54%Spider Pigzs 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Unique — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 32:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Unique · 54%
Series resultTeam Unique 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2