Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Uniquewin 2:1series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
Tundra Esports
Puckoften banned
Nine · 15 games
Abaddonsignature
Fata · 12 games
Clockwerksignature
Sneyking · 12 games
Snapfire
Sneyking · 12 games
Tidehuntersignature
33 · 12 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Fata · 10 games
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 8 games
Batridersignature
33 · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
429 picks · 166 bans
Ancient Apparition
314 picks · 474 bans
Mars
306 picks · 527 bans
Nyx Assassin
303 picks · 615 bans
Puck
298 picks · 708 bans
Enchantress
268 picks · 344 bans
Hoodwink
260 picks · 108 bans
Lina
258 picks · 329 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 65%
Hero pool strength57% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total60% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:9
Team Unique 40%Tundra Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 27:17.
Game 2prediction correct29:16
Team Unique 40%Tundra Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 51:51.
Game 3prediction correct32:10
Team Unique 40%Tundra Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 45:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 60%
Series resultTeam Unique 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3