The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Unknownwin 2:1series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Hokoriloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Unknown
Marsoften banned
Robo-Z · 9 games
Snapfire
Wij · 8 games
Grimstroke
Yadomi · 7 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Wij · 6 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Berna · 5 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Wij · 5 games
Puckoften banned
Robo-Z · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
drakeel · 4 games
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
431 picks · 192 bans
Mars
387 picks · 567 bans
Puck
385 picks · 865 bans
Snapfire
370 picks · 206 bans
Grimstroke
346 picks · 320 bans
Tiny
320 picks · 232 bans
Centaur Warrunner
289 picks · 394 bans
Ancient Apparition
278 picks · 382 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% Team Unknown
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total54% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed49:30
Team Unknown 46%Hokori 54%
The model gave 54% on Hokori — the game was taken by Team Unknown in 46:12.
Game 2prediction correct12:35
Team Unknown 46%Hokori 54%
The model gave 54% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori in 35:46.
Game 3prediction missed44:32
Team Unknown 46%Hokori 54%
The model gave 54% on Hokori — the game was taken by Team Unknown in 40:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 54%
Series resultTeam Unknown 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3