Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Южная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Unknownloss 1:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
SG e-sportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Unknown
Grimstrokeoften banned
Yadomi · 7 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Wij · 6 games
Marsoften banned
drakeel · 6 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Berna · 5 games
Puckoften banned
Robo-Z · 5 games
Snapfire
Wij · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
drakeel · 4 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Wij · 4 games
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
394 picks · 1012 bans
Mars
374 picks · 599 bans
Grimstroke
360 picks · 365 bans
Lion
359 picks · 189 bans
Void Spirit
321 picks · 509 bans
Death Prophet
315 picks · 683 bans
Tusk
308 picks · 226 bans
Earth Spirit
253 picks · 280 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)26% vs 29%
Hero pool strength50% SG e-sports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total53% SG e-sports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:20
Team Unknown 47%SG e-sports 53%
The model gave 53% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by Team Unknown in 29:36.
Game 2prediction correct14:37
Team Unknown 47%SG e-sports 53%
The model gave 53% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 42:00.
Game 3prediction correct16:21
Team Unknown 47%SG e-sports 53%
The model gave 53% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 32:03.
Model check result
Model favoriteSG e-sports · 53%
Series resultSG e-sports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3