DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Yandex
Warlock
Solo · 13 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
TA2000 · 11 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 10 games
Dark Willow
prblms · 8 games
Doomsignature
TA2000 · 8 games
Leshrac
Chira JUNIOR · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
Noticed · 8 games
Bane
prblms · 7 games
eSpoiled
Snapfiresignature
Wein · 30 games
Disruptoroften banned
Wein · 24 games
Medusasignature
ssnovv1 · 23 games
Bane
asdekor_r · 20 games
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 19 games
Leshracsignature
Difference · 18 games
Warlock
asdekor_r · 18 games
Marcioften banned
Wein · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
560 picks · 283 bans
Disruptor
502 picks · 507 bans
Puck
378 picks · 1033 bans
Pugna
336 picks · 386 bans
Hoodwink
329 picks · 162 bans
Mars
329 picks · 552 bans
Warlock
328 picks · 151 bans
Earthshaker
314 picks · 506 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 48%
Hero pool strength55% eSpoiled
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:28
Team Yandex 64%eSpoiled 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 41:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetWatson
Svenssnovv1
Centaur WarrunnerNoticed
Storm SpiritDifference
Sand KingChira JUNIOR
Enchantressasdekor_r
Hoodwinkprblms
Tuskmrls
Elder TitanMalady
Game 2prediction correct24:47
Team Yandex 63%eSpoiled 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 59:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetWatson
Abaddonssnovv1
MarsNoticed
Queen of PainDifference
InvokerChira JUNIOR
Snapfireasdekor_r
Batriderprblms
Hoodwinkmrls
Elder TitanMalady
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 72%
Series resultTeam Yandex 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2