BLAST Slam VI · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Yandexwin 3:1series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Heroicloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Yandex
Tusksignature
Malady · 31 game
Jakirosignature
Malady · 29 games
Slardaroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 22 games
Pangoliersignature
Noticed · 21 game
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 21 game
Hoodwinksignature
Saksa · 19 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
Snapfire
Malady · 18 games
Heroic
Jakirooften banned
Thiolicor · 32 games
Tusk
Scofield · 31 game
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 23 games
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 21 game
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 21 game
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 21 game
Ursaoften banned
Yuma · 20 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Yuma · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
619 picks · 943 bans
Tusk
522 picks · 425 bans
Centaur Warrunner
469 picks · 621 bans
Shadow Demon
426 picks · 964 bans
Dragon Knight
424 picks · 562 bans
Warlock
407 picks · 249 bans
Tiny
402 picks · 453 bans
Ember Spirit
393 picks · 664 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 53%
Hero pool strength55% Team Yandex
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total63% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:26
Team Yandex 57%Heroic 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Heroic in 33:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorWatson
MeepoYuma
TimbersawMalik
Void SpiritTaiLung
PuckChira JUNIOR
BristlebackWisper
Shadow DemonMalady
HoodwinkThiolicor
Shadow ShamanSaksa
Treant ProtectorKJ
Game 2prediction correct30:21
Team Yandex 59%Heroic 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 45:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinWatson
UrsaYuma
ViperChira JUNIOR
UnderlordWisper
MarsMalik
EnigmaTaiLung
HoodwinkSaksa
TinyThiolicor
UndyingMalady
BaneKJ
Game 3prediction correct40:22
Team Yandex 55%Heroic 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 46:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendWatson
RazorYuma
AxeMalik
PuckTaiLung
TinyChira JUNIOR
PhoenixWisper
Shadow DemonSaksa
Spirit BreakerThiolicor
ClockwerkMalady
DazzleKJ
Game 4prediction correct30:20
Team Yandex 58%Heroic 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 46:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterWatson
ClinkzYuma
ViperChira JUNIOR
Dark SeerWisper
Primal BeastMalik
EnigmaTaiLung
TuskMalady
ChenKJ
WindrangerSaksa
TinyThiolicor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 63%
Series resultTeam Yandex 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4