DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Yandexwin 2:0series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HunterZloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Yandex
Nature's Prophetsignature
Watson · 13 games
Warlock
Solo · 13 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 10 games
Hoodwinksignature
prblms · 9 games
Leshrac
Chira JUNIOR · 9 games
Pangolieroften banned
Noticed · 9 games
Dark Willow
prblms · 8 games
Doomsignature
TA2000 · 8 games
HunterZ
Snapfire
Mjz · 12 games
Hoodwink
Mjz · 11 games
Earthshakersignature
Vitaly · 9 games
Jakirosignature
Prada · 8 games
Batrideroften banned
Prada · 6 games
Bristleback
Vitaly · 6 games
Marcisignature
Lumière · 6 games
Slardaroften banned
Vitaly · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
586 picks · 292 bans
Disruptor
514 picks · 520 bans
Puck
384 picks · 1064 bans
Hoodwink
345 picks · 179 bans
Pugna
343 picks · 389 bans
Warlock
342 picks · 156 bans
Mars
339 picks · 582 bans
Tusk
331 picks · 246 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% HunterZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team Yandex 92%HunterZ 8%
The model gave 92% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex.
Game 2prediction correct40:8
Team Yandex 76%HunterZ 24%
The model gave 76% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 27:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinWatson
SvenDaaD-
LycanNoticed
EarthshakerVitaly
Sand KingChira JUNIOR
JakiroPrada
HoodwinkSaksa
TechiesMjz
SnapfireMalady
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 92%
Series resultTeam Yandex 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2