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ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Yandexwin 2:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Yandex

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Malady · 44 games
75%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Malady · 39 games
64%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 31 game
65%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 28 games
54%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Watson · 27 games
74%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 25 games
52%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Saksa · 25 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Saksa · 23 games
78%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 76 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 50 games
54%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 47 games
53%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 45 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 45 games
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Crystallis · 44 games
66%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 41 game
61%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 41 game
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
688 picks · 847 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
594 picks · 612 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
492 picks · 425 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
489 picks · 337 bans
47%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
424 picks · 1111 bans
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
404 picks · 1033 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
400 picks · 701 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
390 picks · 631 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 40%
Hero pool strength54% Team Yandex
Head-to-head5 – 3
Model total74% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:21
Team Yandex 64%MOUZ 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 32:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeWatson
47% · 337 games50% · 364 games
PangolierBOOM
Pangolier
Void Spirit
Void SpiritChira JUNIOR
50% · 249 games44% · 125 games
RazorCrystallis
Razor
Slardar
SlardarNoticed
53% · 350 games50% · 198 games
LeshracMidOne
Leshrac
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMalady
54% · 440 games49% · 530 games
WarlockSeleri
Warlock
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanSaksa
51% · 416 games51% · 575 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct40:9
Team Yandex 66%MOUZ 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 30:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinWatson
55% · 156 games46% · 267 games
UrsaCrystallis
Ursa
Tidehunter
TidehunterNoticed
57% · 108 games39% · 216 games
Void SpiritMidOne
Void Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritChira JUNIOR
60% · 180 games45% · 37 games
VenomancerBOOM
Venomancer
Marci
MarciSaksa
58% · 139 games45% · 120 games
EnchantressSeleri
Enchantress
Phoenix
PhoenixMalady
52% · 134 games45% · 77 games
Bounty Hunteryamich
Bounty Hunter
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 74%
Series resultTeam Yandex 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2