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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Yandexwin 2:0
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Peru Rejectsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Yandex

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Watson · 16 games
69%
Warlock
Warlock
Solo · 13 games
38%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
prblms · 12 games
83%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 11 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Noticed · 11 games
55%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Chira JUNIOR · 9 games
33%
Snapfire
Snapfire
prblms · 9 games
56%
Axe
Axesignature
Noticed · 8 games
63%

Peru Rejects

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Michael · 11 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 8 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Michael · 7 games
43%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
payk · 7 games
29%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Matthew · 7 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Michael · 7 games
71%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Elmisho · 7 games
86%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
payk · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
638 picks · 317 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
551 picks · 558 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
406 picks · 1138 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
400 picks · 208 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
373 picks · 622 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
357 picks · 273 bans
50%
Pugna
Pugna
356 picks · 394 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
354 picks · 161 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 61%
Hero pool strength50% Team Yandex
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:11
Team Yandex 65%Peru Rejects 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 26:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinWatson
51% · 195 games54% · 54 games
HuskarILICH-
Huskar
Axe
AxeNoticed
47% · 121 game50% · 133 games
Ursapayk
Ursa
Sniper
SniperChira JUNIOR
49% · 72 games47% · 196 games
Ember SpiritDarkMago
Ember Spirit
Pudge
PudgeSaksa
54% · 57 games47% · 110 games
EnchantressMichael
Enchantress
Jakiro
JakiroMalady
48% · 257 games56% · 209 games
Shadow ShamanMatthew
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct33:9
Team Yandex 66%Peru Rejects 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 22:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawNoticed
53% · 202 games51% · 232 games
Gyrocopterpayk
Gyrocopter
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightChira JUNIOR
54% · 392 games46% · 242 games
PangolierILICH-
Pangolier
Juggernaut
JuggernautWatson
46% · 61 game43% · 178 games
Queen of PainDarkMago
Queen of Pain
Snapfire
SnapfireMalady
53% · 299 games49% · 199 games
ClockwerkMichael
Clockwerk
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSaksa
55% · 147 games47% · 250 games
DisruptorMatthew
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 79%
Series resultTeam Yandex 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2