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PGL Wallachia Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Yandexwin 2:0
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Falconsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Yandex

Tusk
Tusksignature
Malady · 35 games
63%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Malady · 32 games
75%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Saksa · 26 games
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Saksa · 23 games
78%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 22 games
50%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 22 games
45%
Axe
Axesignature
Noticed · 21 game
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Noticed · 21 game
67%

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 32 games
66%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 30 games
63%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Sneyking · 30 games
63%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 30 games
70%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 28 games
68%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 28 games
61%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 24 games
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 21 game
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
594 picks · 923 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
481 picks · 424 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
478 picks · 519 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
439 picks · 298 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
417 picks · 1062 bans
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
398 picks · 581 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
395 picks · 574 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
392 picks · 672 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 54%
Hero pool strength51% Team Falcons
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total73% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:6
Team Yandex 38%Team Falcons 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 35:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinWatson
54% · 231 game52% · 182 games
RazorLorenof
Razor
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritChira JUNIOR
51% · 345 games48% · 424 games
AbaddonSkiter
Abaddon
Batrider
BatriderDM
50% · 310 games48% · 495 games
MarsATF
Mars
Tiny
TinySaksa
50% · 447 games49% · 295 games
MuertaCr1t-
Muerta
Jakiro
JakiroMalady
46% · 559 games52% · 496 games
Shadow ShamanSneyking
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction missed25:11
Team Yandex 38%Team Falcons 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 34:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinWatson
58% · 288 games46% · 249 games
SvenSkiter
Sven
Slardar
SlardarChira JUNIOR
52% · 269 games48% · 462 games
PuckLorenof
Puck
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDM
48% · 200 games45% · 425 games
MarsATF
Mars
Tiny
TinySaksa
52% · 457 games52% · 416 games
Shadow DemonCr1t-
Shadow Demon
Jakiro
JakiroMalady
53% · 597 games46% · 259 games
PhoenixSneyking
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 73%
Series resultTeam Yandex 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2