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DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Yandexwin 2:1
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Virtus.proloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Yandex

Tusk
Tusksignature
Malady · 25 games
64%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 23 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Noticed · 23 games
61%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Malady · 22 games
64%
Warlock
Warlock
Malady · 21 game
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
prblms · 18 games
78%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 18 games
61%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Malady · 18 games
56%

Virtus.pro

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Antares · 27 games
63%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Timado · 19 games
53%
Puck
Pucksignature
Abed · 19 games
68%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 18 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Timado · 17 games
47%
Warlock
Warlock
Fly · 16 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Abed · 15 games
47%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 14 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
770 picks · 353 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
609 picks · 304 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
595 picks · 543 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
585 picks · 729 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
551 picks · 545 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
550 picks · 333 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
511 picks · 763 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
509 picks · 597 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Team Yandex
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total75% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:13
Team Yandex 64%Virtus.pro 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 35:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautWatson
55% · 41 game45% · 125 games
WeaverTimado
Weaver
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetChira JUNIOR
55% · 215 games49% · 411 games
TinyAbed
Tiny
Tidehunter
TidehunterNoticed
49% · 136 games48% · 217 games
AxeSabeRLight-
Axe
Warlock
WarlockMalady
52% · 281 game52% · 151 game
Bounty HunterHellscream
Bounty Hunter
Tusk
TuskSaksa
48% · 310 games51% · 79 games
Crystal MaidenFly
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed21:38
Team Yandex 62%Virtus.pro 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 44:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightChira JUNIOR
52% · 294 games53% · 95 games
JuggernautTimado
Juggernaut
Muerta
MuertaWatson
53% · 161 game49% · 180 games
SlardarSabeRLight-
Slardar
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNoticed
45% · 234 games54% · 281 game
BatriderHellscream
Batrider
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerSaksa
45% · 48 games50% · 172 games
ChenFly
Chen
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenMalady
49% · 55 games45% · 64 games
Earth SpiritAbed
Earth Spirit
Game 3prediction correct42:14
Team Yandex 64%Virtus.pro 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 30:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetChira JUNIOR
55% · 404 games51% · 94 games
LycanSabeRLight-
Lycan
Meepo
MeepoWatson
57% · 26 games42% · 212 games
TerrorbladeTimado
Terrorblade
Axe
AxeNoticed
46% · 196 games49% · 220 games
TinyAbed
Tiny
Venomancer
VenomancerMalady
57% · 68 games52% · 213 games
BatriderHellscream
Batrider
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSaksa
49% · 327 games46% · 282 games
JakiroFly
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 75%
Series resultTeam Yandex 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3