BLAST Slam V · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Yandex
Nature's Prophetsignature
Watson · 21 game
Pangoliersignature
Noticed · 21 game
Warlock
Solo · 19 games
Jakirosignature
Malady · 17 games
Tusk
Malady · 17 games
Hoodwinksignature
prblms · 16 games
Snapfire
Malady · 16 games
Gyrocoptersignature
TA2000 · 15 games
Xtreme Gaming
Warlocksignature
xNova · 21 game
Puckoften banned
Xm · 19 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 19 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 16 games
Pangoliersignature
Xxs · 15 games
Disruptoroften banned
xNova · 14 games
Elder Titansignature
xNova · 14 games
Earthshakeroften banned
XinQ · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
786 picks · 359 bans
Disruptor
582 picks · 585 bans
Hoodwink
576 picks · 300 bans
Jakiro
488 picks · 317 bans
Dragon Knight
483 picks · 568 bans
Tusk
476 picks · 268 bans
Mars
466 picks · 754 bans
Puck
438 picks · 1113 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 55%
Hero pool strength52% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total57% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:31
Team Yandex 52%Xtreme Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 43:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightWatson
UrsaAme
Queen of PainChira JUNIOR
PangolierNothingToSay
Centaur WarrunnerNoticed
SlardarXxs
PhoenixMalady
Hoodwinkfy
Void SpiritSaksa
WarlockxNova
Game 2prediction correct35:17
Team Yandex 54%Xtreme Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 48:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinWatson
MorphlingAme
DoomNoticed
BeastmasterNothingToSay
SlardarChira JUNIOR
TidehunterXxs
SnapfireSaksa
Hoodwinkfy
TuskMalady
LichxNova
Game 3prediction correct31:27
Team Yandex 55%Xtreme Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 43:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeWatson
GyrocopterAme
TimbersawNoticed
Shadow FiendNothingToSay
Dragon KnightChira JUNIOR
EarthshakerXxs
BatriderSaksa
DisruptorxNova
TuskMalady
Nyx Assassinfy
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 57%
Series resultTeam Yandex 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3