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ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Yandexwin 2:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Yandex

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Malady · 46 games
76%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Malady · 39 games
64%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 34 games
68%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 31 game
55%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Watson · 28 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 26 games
54%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Saksa · 26 games
58%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Watson · 24 games
83%

Xtreme Gaming

Warlock
Warlock
xNova · 29 games
48%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 28 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 24 games
42%
Tusk
Tusk
fy · 24 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
xNova · 23 games
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 23 games
74%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Xxs · 22 games
77%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
xNova · 21 game
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
675 picks · 853 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
577 picks · 590 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
501 picks · 429 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
483 picks · 335 bans
47%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
422 picks · 1130 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
403 picks · 690 bans
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
400 picks · 1028 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
394 picks · 622 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 51%
Hero pool strength56% Team Yandex
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total60% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:19
Team Yandex 58%Xtreme Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 40:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinWatson
53% · 269 games54% · 207 games
Monkey KingAme
Monkey King
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritChira JUNIOR
51% · 397 games46% · 212 games
LeshracNothingToSay
Leshrac
Tidehunter
TidehunterNoticed
50% · 198 games44% · 372 games
MarsXxs
Mars
Batrider
BatriderSaksa
53% · 346 games43% · 555 games
Tuskfy
Tusk
Phoenix
PhoenixMalady
57% · 218 games49% · 82 games
OraclexNova
Oracle
Game 2prediction missed15:38
Team Yandex 58%Xtreme Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 33:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Batrider
BatriderNoticed
51% · 299 games55% · 74 games
Faceless VoidAme
Faceless Void
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritChira JUNIOR
50% · 271 game45% · 266 games
BristlebackXxs
Bristleback
Muerta
MuertaWatson
49% · 135 games47% · 297 games
PangolierNothingToSay
Pangolier
Phoenix
PhoenixMalady
54% · 144 games45% · 29 games
Iofy
Io
Monkey King
Monkey KingSaksa
55% · 160 games50% · 343 games
DisruptorxNova
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct31:15
Team Yandex 55%Xtreme Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 33:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyWatson
46% · 333 games55% · 261 game
BristlebackXxs
Bristleback
Void Spirit
Void SpiritChira JUNIOR
49% · 152 games50% · 294 games
BeastmasterAme
Beastmaster
Tidehunter
TidehunterNoticed
53% · 168 games55% · 133 games
Keeper of the LightNothingToSay
Keeper of the Light
Rubick
RubickMalady
46% · 42 games47% · 70 games
Spirit Breakerfy
Spirit Breaker
Marci
MarciSaksa
51% · 164 games47% · 101 game
EnchantressxNova
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 60%
Series resultTeam Yandex 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3