?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Zeroloss 1:2
series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Azure Raywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Zero

Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
BEYOND · 10 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
iceice · 9 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
zzq · 9 games
67%
Lion
Lion
iceice · 8 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
zzq · 7 games
57%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
BEYOND · 7 games
57%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
7e · 7 games
71%
Muerta
Muertasignature
iceice · 6 games
83%

Azure Ray

Luna
Luna
lou · 24 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Faith_bian · 19 games
63%
Lion
Lion
fy · 19 games
58%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Ori · 19 games
58%
Techies
Techiessignature
天命 · 19 games
79%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
fy · 17 games
53%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Faith_bian · 16 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
天命 · 16 games
81%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
404 picks · 654 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
387 picks · 618 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
385 picks · 357 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
380 picks · 311 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
365 picks · 796 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
361 picks · 416 bans
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
355 picks · 355 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
337 picks · 561 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Azure Ray
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total83% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:27
Team Zero 32%Azure Ray 68%
The model gave 68% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 40:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangerpoyoyo
39% · 76 games45% · 229 games
Morphlinglou
Morphling
Razor
Razor7e
53% · 109 games50% · 106 games
LeshracOri
Leshrac
Kunkka
KunkkaBEYOND
50% · 142 games52% · 121 game
Dragon KnightFaith_bian
Dragon Knight
Batrider
BatriderPonlo
51% · 259 games55% · 176 games
Tinyfy
Tiny
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenzzq
49% · 217 games55% · 171 game
Mirana天命
Mirana
Game 2prediction missed25:20
Team Zero 34%Azure Ray 66%
The model gave 66% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Team Zero in 40:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightBEYOND
52% · 196 games50% · 158 games
Svenlou
Sven
Clinkz
Clinkzpoyoyo
53% · 45 games50% · 82 games
RazorOri
Razor
Pangolier
Pangolier7e
51% · 323 games49% · 206 games
Centaur WarrunnerFaith_bian
Centaur Warrunner
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetzzq
49% · 193 games48% · 189 games
Lionfy
Lion
Mirana
MiranaPonlo
54% · 223 games46% · 345 games
Enchantress天命
Enchantress
Game 3prediction correct5:28
Team Zero 32%Azure Ray 68%
The model gave 68% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 32:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladepoyoyo
49% · 235 games50% · 60 games
Weaverlou
Weaver
Razor
Razor7e
50% · 62 games49% · 184 games
BeastmasterFaith_bian
Beastmaster
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerBEYOND
46% · 136 games55% · 129 games
KunkkaOri
Kunkka
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerzzq
48% · 185 games55% · 203 games
Techiesfy
Techies
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanPonlo
45% · 14 games47% · 56 games
Io天命
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 83%
Series resultAzure Ray 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3