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PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Zeroloss 0:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Azure Raywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Zero

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ponlo · 14 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
7e · 13 games
69%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
BEYOND · 12 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
zzq · 12 games
75%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
7e · 11 games
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
zzq · 10 games
60%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
zzq · 10 games
30%
Lion
Lionsignature
Ponlo · 10 games
70%

Azure Ray

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
fy · 32 games
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Faith_bian · 22 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Ori · 20 games
55%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Ori · 18 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
fy · 16 games
50%
Sven
Svenoften banned
lou · 16 games
25%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
lou · 15 games
47%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
lou · 15 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
416 picks · 350 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
409 picks · 450 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
389 picks · 828 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
379 picks · 872 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
358 picks · 747 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
345 picks · 515 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
331 picks · 502 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
299 picks · 570 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 39%
Hero pool strength54% Team Zero
Head-to-head1 – 6
Model total62% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:22
Team Zero 45%Azure Ray 55%
The model gave 55% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 32:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidpoyoyo
48% · 116 games51% · 212 games
Dragon Knightlou
Dragon Knight
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend7e
49% · 63 games50% · 30 games
VenomancerFaith_bian
Venomancer
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBEYOND
49% · 242 games52% · 207 games
Shadow DemonFantasy
Shadow Demon
Enchantress
Enchantresszzq
47% · 184 games54% · 182 games
ClockwerkpLAnet
Clockwerk
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinPonlo
45% · 26 games
Game 2prediction correct14:27
Team Zero 45%Azure Ray 55%
The model gave 55% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 43:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
Linapoyoyo
47% · 112 games48% · 50 games
Wraith Kinglou
Wraith King
Doom
DoomBEYOND
51% · 220 games49% · 210 games
PangolierFaith_bian
Pangolier
Void Spirit
Void Spirit7e
40% · 83 games57% · 155 games
Shadow DemonpLAnet
Shadow Demon
Medusa
MedusaPonlo
50% · 75 games44% · 198 games
RubickFantasy
Rubick
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorzzq
61% · 123 games
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 62%
Series resultAzure Ray 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2