The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Zerowin 2:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Big Brainloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Zero
Keeper of the Lightsignature
iceice · 6 games
Spirit Breakersignature
zzq · 6 games
Pangolieroften banned
7e · 5 games
Techiesoften banned
iceice · 5 games
Timbersawoften banned
7e · 5 games
Void Spirit
7e · 5 games
Windrangeroften banned
Cty · 5 games
Enchantressoften banned
zzq · 4 games
Big Brain
Tusksignature
omoxiloyi · 16 games
Mirana
marblue · 9 games
Doomoften banned
Molasses · 8 games
Morphlingsignature
GodKing · 8 games
Disruptor
Tz. · 7 games
Windrangeroften banned
csj · 7 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Tz. · 6 games
Snapfireoften banned
Molasses · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
600 picks · 630 bans
Rubick
473 picks · 254 bans
Batrider
426 picks · 840 bans
Spirit Breaker
380 picks · 386 bans
Ember Spirit
374 picks · 744 bans
Doom
350 picks · 768 bans
Timbersaw
346 picks · 845 bans
Storm Spirit
344 picks · 762 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 54%
Hero pool strength56% Team Zero
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total74% Team Zero
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:16
Team Zero 66%Big Brain 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 23:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerCty
Marcicsj
Pangolier7e
Ember SpiritSakata
UnderlordBEYOND
Faceless VoidGodKing
Batridericeice
Invokermarblue
Disruptorzzq
AbaddonTz.
Game 2prediction correct34:11
Team Zero 63%Big Brain 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 24:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidCty
SlarkGodKing
Templar Assassin7e
RazorSakata
BrewmasterBEYOND
Visagecsj
Batridericeice
Invokermarblue
Disruptorzzq
SilencerTz.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Zero · 74%
Series resultTeam Zero 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2