Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Zerowin 2:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Eagleloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Zero
Brewmasteroften banned
BEYOND · 9 games
Batridersignature
iceice · 8 games
Grimstrokesignature
zzq · 6 games
Muertasignature
iceice · 6 games
Primal Beastoften banned
BEYOND · 6 games
Dazzleoften banned
7e · 5 games
Jakiro
zzq · 5 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
zzq · 5 games
Eagle
Muerta
ukiyo · 5 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
mercy · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
ukiyo · 3 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Tz. · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
mercy · 2 games
Dark Willow
mercy · 2 games
Kunkkaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
Magnusoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
383 picks · 349 bans
Vengeful Spirit
338 picks · 328 bans
Centaur Warrunner
326 picks · 519 bans
Mars
311 picks · 451 bans
Techies
298 picks · 224 bans
Hoodwink
288 picks · 169 bans
Pangolier
283 picks · 425 bans
Batrider
281 picks · 527 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 44%
Hero pool strength53% Team Zero
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Team Zero
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:19
Team Zero 64%Eagle 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 46:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Painpoyoyo
LifestealerManic
Dragon Knight7e
Outworld DestroyerStorm
SlardarBEYOND
Shadow DemonHara
Nature's Prophetzzq
TechiesVictoria
LionPonlo
Game 2prediction correct28:13
Team Zero 65%Eagle 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 31:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lunapoyoyo
MedusaManic
WindrangerBEYOND
GrimstrokeHara
Tiny7e
Queen of PainStorm
DoomPonlo
Vengeful SpiritVictoria
Miranazzq
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Zero · 78%
Series resultTeam Zero 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2