?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Zerowin 2:0
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Eagleloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Zero

Lion
Lion
Ponlo · 12 games
58%
Batrider
Batridersignature
iceice · 11 games
64%
Mirana
Miranasignature
zzq · 11 games
73%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
BEYOND · 10 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
BEYOND · 10 games
70%
Luna
Luna
poyoyo · 9 games
44%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
zzq · 8 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
zzq · 8 games
75%

Eagle

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Hara · 12 games
50%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Manic · 6 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Hara · 6 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
Tz. · 5 games
40%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Manic · 4 games
25%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
ukiyo · 4 games
25%
Rubick
Rubick
Hara · 4 games
50%
Techies
Techies
Victoria · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
419 picks · 683 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
397 picks · 645 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
393 picks · 360 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
392 picks · 323 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
378 picks · 834 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
376 picks · 461 bans
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
358 picks · 358 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
349 picks · 595 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 47%
Hero pool strength58% Team Zero
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total84% Team Zero
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:6
Team Zero 67%Eagle 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 18:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterpoyoyo
39% · 50 games44% · 69 games
Zeusblessing
Zeus
Primal Beast
Primal Beast7e
52% · 113 games63% · 140 games
LifestealerManic
Lifestealer
Kunkka
KunkkaBEYOND
39% · 90 games54% · 237 games
PugnaVictoria
Pugna
Techies
TechiesPonlo
42% · 171 game61% · 80 games
WeaverHara
Weaver
Terrorblade
Terrorbladezzq
48% · 102 games
Game 2prediction correct32:19
Team Zero 69%Eagle 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 30:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistpoyoyo
52% · 117 games56% · 86 games
GyrocopterManic
Gyrocopter
Lina
Lina7e
51% · 54 games49% · 91 game
Templar Assassinblessing
Templar Assassin
Omniknight
OmniknightBEYOND
52% · 23 games40% · 144 games
TerrorbladeHara
Terrorblade
Chen
Chenzzq
50% · 83 games47% · 130 games
MarsVictoria
Mars
Tiny
TinyPonlo
55% · 174 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Zero · 84%
Series resultTeam Zero 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2