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PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Zerowin 2:0
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Spiky Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Zero

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ponlo · 14 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
7e · 13 games
69%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
BEYOND · 12 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
zzq · 12 games
75%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
7e · 11 games
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
zzq · 10 games
60%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
zzq · 10 games
30%
Lion
Lionsignature
Ponlo · 10 games
70%

Spiky Gaming

Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
Hara · 5 games
40%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Manic · 3 games
67%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Manic · 3 games
33%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Hara · 2 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Xwy · 2 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 2 games
0%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Manic · 2 games
0%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Manic · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
404 picks · 446 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
401 picks · 339 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
382 picks · 822 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
376 picks · 872 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
356 picks · 732 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
330 picks · 510 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
323 picks · 496 bans
56%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
293 picks · 673 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 57%
Hero pool strength57% Team Zero
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total69% Team Zero
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:16
Team Zero 62%Spiky Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 40:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistpoyoyo
54% · 93 games40% · 317 games
Pangolier生死
Pangolier
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend7e
59% · 77 games43% · 95 games
MuertaManic
Muerta
Primal Beast
Primal BeastBEYOND
59% · 287 games49% · 201 game
WeaverTK
Weaver
Monkey King
Monkey KingPonlo
54% · 124 games45% · 271 game
RubickHara
Rubick
Phoenix
Phoenixzzq
52% · 303 games
Game 2prediction correct40:13
Team Zero 58%Spiky Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 30:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomBEYOND
47% · 140 games50% · 48 games
MeepoManic
Meepo
Windranger
Windrangerpoyoyo
46% · 125 games55% · 327 games
Pangolier生死
Pangolier
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit7e
47% · 174 games55% · 38 games
VisageTK
Visage
Hoodwink
HoodwinkPonlo
57% · 156 games48% · 202 games
ClockwerkHara
Clockwerk
Venomancer
Venomancerzzq
39% · 20 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Zero · 69%
Series resultTeam Zero 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2