PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Zerowin 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Spiky Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Zero
Tinyoften banned
Ponlo · 14 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
BEYOND · 13 games
Pangoliersignature
7e · 13 games
Miranasignature
zzq · 12 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
7e · 11 games
Clockwerksignature
zzq · 10 games
Crystal Maiden
zzq · 10 games
Lionsignature
Ponlo · 10 games
Spiky Gaming
Weaveroften banned
Manic · 6 games
Dark Willowoften banned
Hara · 5 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Hara · 4 games
Doomoften banned
Manic · 3 games
Lifestealeroften banned
Manic · 3 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Xwy · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 2 games
Meepooften banned
Manic · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
427 picks · 359 bans
Hoodwink
414 picks · 452 bans
Weaver
389 picks · 832 bans
Tiny
383 picks · 867 bans
Phoenix
365 picks · 757 bans
Pangolier
351 picks · 524 bans
Clockwerk
337 picks · 506 bans
Ember Spirit
307 picks · 592 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% Team Zero
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total68% Team Zero
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team Zero 68%Spiky Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero.
Game 2prediction correct34:46
Team Zero 59%Spiky Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 58:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusapoyoyo
LinaManic
TimbersawBEYOND
EnchantressTK
Monkey King7e
Night Stalker生死
MiranaPonlo
ClockwerkHara
Crystal Maidenzzq
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Zero · 68%
Series resultTeam Zero 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2