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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Zerowin 2:0
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Brightloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Zero

Lion
Lion
Ponlo · 13 games
54%
Batrider
Batridersignature
iceice · 11 games
64%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
BEYOND · 11 games
73%
Mirana
Miranasignature
zzq · 11 games
73%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
BEYOND · 10 games
50%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
poyoyo · 9 games
44%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
BEYOND · 9 games
56%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
zzq · 8 games
50%

Team Bright

Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Irving · 10 games
40%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Irving · 10 games
60%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Xwy · 8 games
38%
Lina
Linasignature
Ulu · 7 games
71%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
43%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
RedPanda · 7 games
29%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Xwy · 7 games
43%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
TK · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
440 picks · 718 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
417 picks · 670 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
415 picks · 330 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
399 picks · 360 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
396 picks · 517 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
395 picks · 874 bans
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
374 picks · 166 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
373 picks · 177 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 52%
Hero pool strength56% Team Zero
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total72% Team Zero
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:17
Team Zero 62%Team Bright 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 41:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painpoyoyo
55% · 149 games50% · 161 game
Templar AssassinUlu
Templar Assassin
Huskar
Huskar7e
54% · 43 games47% · 163 games
Ember SpiritXwy
Ember Spirit
Kunkka
KunkkaBEYOND
53% · 139 games54% · 47 games
SlardarIrving
Slardar
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerzzq
45% · 213 games49% · 243 games
BatriderTK
Batrider
Lion
LionPonlo
51% · 244 games45% · 174 games
Shadow DemonRedPanda
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct29:32
Team Zero 65%Team Bright 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 51:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painpoyoyo
65% · 98 games45% · 117 games
RazorIrving
Razor
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightBEYOND
54% · 153 games50% · 44 games
SlardarXwy
Slardar
Primal Beast
Primal Beast7e
49% · 192 games45% · 214 games
MorphlingUlu
Morphling
Tiny
TinyPonlo
48% · 191 game45% · 177 games
PhoenixRedPanda
Phoenix
Mirana
Miranazzq
59% · 140 games44% · 222 games
LionTK
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Zero · 72%
Series resultTeam Zero 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2