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The International 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Zeroloss 1:1
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Falconsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Zero

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
BEYOND · 14 games
57%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ponlo · 14 games
57%
Mirana
Miranasignature
zzq · 13 games
77%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
7e · 13 games
69%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
zzq · 12 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
7e · 12 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
BEYOND · 11 games
64%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ponlo · 11 games
73%

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 42 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Malr1ne · 34 games
65%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 29 games
76%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 28 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 28 games
68%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 25 games
56%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 24 games
71%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 24 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
409 picks · 374 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
383 picks · 428 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
365 picks · 532 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
342 picks · 256 bans
47%
Weaver
Weaver
333 picks · 745 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
318 picks · 642 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
316 picks · 763 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
309 picks · 651 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 61%
Hero pool strength56% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:17
Team Zero 43%Team Falcons 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Zero in 32:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendpoyoyo
53% · 69 games51% · 114 games
Nature's ProphetSkiter
Nature's Prophet
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit7e
40% · 97 games43% · 131 game
DoomATF
Doom
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBEYOND
52% · 359 games47% · 249 games
PangolierMalr1ne
Pangolier
Sniper
SniperPonlo
57% · 72 games53% · 73 games
SnapfireCr1t-
Snapfire
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorzzq
56% · 109 games49% · 139 games
SvenSneyking
Sven
Game 2prediction correct23:29
Team Zero 42%Team Falcons 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 36:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
Weaverpoyoyo
53% · 172 games47% · 185 games
PuckMalr1ne
Puck
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBEYOND
51% · 352 games49% · 248 games
Dragon KnightSkiter
Dragon Knight
Slardar
Slardar7e
52% · 120 games55% · 157 games
DoomATF
Doom
Snapfire
SnapfirePonlo
44% · 137 games42% · 138 games
LionCr1t-
Lion
Bristleback
Bristlebackzzq
51% · 43 games57% · 96 games
ChenSneyking
Chen
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 59%
Accuracy by game1 of 2