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DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
TeamCompromisowin 2:1
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Estar Backsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TeamCompromiso

Zeus
Zeus
Panda · 9 games
56%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
DaaD- · 7 games
29%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DaaD- · 5 games
80%
Muerta
Muerta
Genek · 5 games
80%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Genek · 4 games
25%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Genek · 4 games
50%
Windranger
Windranger
Genek · 4 games
25%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Panda · 3 games
100%

Estar Backs

Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Wits · 4 games
100%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Frank · 3 games
100%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Prada · 3 games
100%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Leostyle · 3 games
100%
Muerta
Muerta
Michael · 3 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Prada · 2 games
100%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Prada · 2 games
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mnz · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
548 picks · 778 bans
48%
Muerta
Muerta
446 picks · 328 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
438 picks · 711 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
413 picks · 405 bans
53%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
408 picks · 719 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
396 picks · 897 bans
57%
Magnus
Magnus
393 picks · 1056 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
382 picks · 526 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 60%
Hero pool strength62% Estar Backs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% TeamCompromiso
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:5
TeamCompromiso 56%Estar Backs 44%
The model gave 56% on TeamCompromiso — the game was taken by TeamCompromiso in 25:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenDaaD-
55% · 73 games38% · 131 game
TerrorbladeWits
Terrorblade
Tidehunter
TidehunterAdrx
65% · 56 games45% · 50 games
UnderlordFrank
Underlord
Muerta
MuertaGenek
55% · 149 games44% · 50 games
SlardarLeostyle
Slardar
Warlock
WarlockPanda
62% · 50 games39% · 26 games
TinkerMjz
Tinker
42% · 71 game
WindrangerPrada
Windranger
Game 2prediction missed16:34
TeamCompromiso 52%Estar Backs 48%
The model gave 52% on TeamCompromiso — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 50:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingDaaD-
46% · 11 games54% · 48 games
Nature's ProphetWits
Nature's Prophet
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerAdrx
61% · 97 games37% · 85 games
Ember SpiritLeostyle
Ember Spirit
Muerta
MuertaGenek
52% · 166 games41% · 71 game
Night StalkerFrank
Night Stalker
Silencer
SilencerPanda
51% · 41 game48% · 20 games
RingmasterPrada
Ringmaster
49% · 91 game
Crystal MaidenMjz
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction missed21:19
TeamCompromiso 49%Estar Backs 51%
The model gave 51% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by TeamCompromiso in 44:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusDaaD-
56% · 106 games51% · 188 games
PuckLeostyle
Puck
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeAdrx
42% · 121 game53% · 82 games
AbaddonFrank
Abaddon
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanGenek
40% · 43 games49% · 34 games
RikiWits
Riki
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonPanda
48% · 150 games58% · 88 games
Elder TitanMjz
Elder Titan
53% · 28 games
RingmasterPrada
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteTeamCompromiso · 54%
Series resultTeamCompromiso 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3