The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
TeamDkloss 1:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
AllStarswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TeamDk
No games played over 6 months.
AllStars
Dragon Knightoften banned
bsK7- · 3 games
Marsoften banned
Sacred · 3 games
Omniknightoften banned
blessed kid · 3 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Benjimon · 3 games
Warlock
Accel · 3 games
Abaddonoften banned
Sacred · 2 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Accel · 2 games
Jakiro
Accel · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
481 picks · 448 bans
Tiny
476 picks · 560 bans
Ringmaster
446 picks · 229 bans
Terrorblade
351 picks · 692 bans
Storm Spirit
310 picks · 474 bans
Ancient Apparition
306 picks · 706 bans
Tusk
301 picks · 249 bans
Windranger
291 picks · 90 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 55%
Hero pool strength55% AllStars
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% TeamDk
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:9
TeamDk 46%AllStars 54%
The model gave 54% on AllStars — the game was taken by TeamDk in 32:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
OmniknightSatoshi-
LinaBenjimon
DisruptorCara
Dark Seerblessed kid
LionFeelinG
OracleAccel
Game 2prediction correct40:38
TeamDk 50%AllStars 50%
The model gave 50% on AllStars — the game was taken by AllStars in 41:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MarsSatoshi-
Void SpiritBenjimon
LionFeelinG
Terrorbladeblessed kid
Ancient ApparitionCara
WarlockAccel
Game 3prediction missed19:41
TeamDk 51%AllStars 49%
The model gave 51% on TeamDk — the game was taken by AllStars in 34:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MarsSatoshi-
PangolierBenjimon
MuertaFeelinG
Tidehunterblessed kid
Ancient ApparitionCara
WarlockAccel
Model check result
Model favoriteTeamDk · 51%
Series resultAllStars 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3