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Asian Dragon Series: Continental Collision · BO3
result vs prediction
Teamlessloss 0:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Essencewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Teamless

Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Cije · 2 games
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Varizh · 1 game
0%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
db- · 1 game
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cije · 1 game
0%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Varizh · 1 game
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
db- · 1 game
0%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Varizh · 1 game
0%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Varizh · 1 game
0%

Team Essence

Zeus
Zeus
Varizh · 4 games
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
dalul · 2 games
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
db- · 2 games
0%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Varizh · 2 games
0%
Mirana
Mirana
Varizh · 2 games
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
db- · 1 game
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
dalul · 1 game
0%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
db- · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
472 picks · 606 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
461 picks · 397 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
454 picks · 565 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
433 picks · 541 bans
56%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
420 picks · 780 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
417 picks · 484 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
403 picks · 901 bans
59%
Lion
Lion
394 picks · 233 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 36%
Hero pool strength54% Teamless
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Team Essence
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:30
Teamless 40%Team Essence 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Essence — the game was taken by Team Essence in 29:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistdb-
50% · 142 games48% · 38 games
LinaArmel
Lina
Visage
VisageRusman
46% · 62 games51% · 121 game
TinyRaven
Tiny
Riki
RikiJuju
53% · 16 games52% · 177 games
ClockwerkNARMAN
Clockwerk
Lich
LichVarizh
51% · 149 games48% · 33 games
ZeusPonyo
Zeus
Game 2prediction correct23:33
Teamless 38%Team Essence 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Essence — the game was taken by Team Essence in 45:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerdb-
51% · 188 games47% · 127 games
TinyRaven
Tiny
Zeus
ZeusJuju
46% · 125 games60% · 40 games
PuckArmel
Puck
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderRusman
63% · 20 games46% · 100 games
PhoenixPonyo
Phoenix
Silencer
SilencerVarizh
40% · 7 games49% · 73 games
ClockwerkNARMAN
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Essence · 71%
Series resultTeam Essence 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2