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DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Tearlamentswin 2:0
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Roar Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tearlaments

Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Echo · 6 games
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
7e · 6 games
83%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
poyoyo · 6 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Echo · 6 games
83%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Srf · 5 games
60%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
zzq · 5 games
100%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
7e · 5 games
80%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
7e · 4 games
100%

Roar Gaming

Disruptor
Disruptor
RedPanda · 4 games
75%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Ulu · 2 games
100%
Marci
Marcioften banned
生死 · 2 games
100%
Snapfire
Snapfire
CatYou · 2 games
100%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
100%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
生死 · 1 game
100%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
生死 · 1 game
0%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
生死 · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
292 picks · 710 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
276 picks · 178 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
260 picks · 242 bans
46%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
256 picks · 664 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
249 picks · 250 bans
45%
Pugna
Pugna
247 picks · 261 bans
55%
Marci
Marci
246 picks · 638 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
244 picks · 103 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 67%
Hero pool strength53% Tearlaments
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Tearlaments
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:13
Tearlaments 56%Roar Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on Tearlaments — the game was taken by Tearlaments in 43:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunapoyoyo
42% · 101 game55% · 173 games
EarthshakerButterflyEffect
Earthshaker
Puck
PuckEcho
51% · 310 games53% · 174 games
Templar AssassinUlu
Templar Assassin
Mars
MarsSrf
50% · 161 game53% · 174 games
Timbersaw生死
Timbersaw
Enchantress
Enchantresszzq
50% · 182 games44% · 289 games
BatriderCatYou
Batrider
Ringmaster
Ringmaster7e
52% · 129 games48% · 73 games
UndyingRedPanda
Undying
Game 2prediction correct47:29
Tearlaments 57%Roar Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on Tearlaments — the game was taken by Tearlaments in 56:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetpoyoyo
49% · 242 games49% · 222 games
Ember SpiritButterflyEffect
Ember Spirit
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainEcho
44% · 226 games54% · 131 game
UrsaUlu
Ursa
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSrf
51% · 123 games53% · 147 games
Earthshaker生死
Earthshaker
Snapfire
Snapfire7e
46% · 101 game56% · 245 games
Shadow ShamanCatYou
Shadow Shaman
Clockwerk
Clockwerkzzq
51% · 208 games49% · 155 games
AbaddonRedPanda
Abaddon
Model check result
Model favoriteTearlaments · 66%
Series resultTearlaments 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2