BLAST Slam V. Закрытые отборочные · BO5
result vs prediction
Tearlamentswin 3:2series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 3:2
Roar Gamingloss 2:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tearlaments
Nature's Prophetsignature
poyoyo · 14 games
Hoodwinksignature
7e · 11 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Echo · 11 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
poyoyo · 11 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Srf · 10 games
Marsoften banned
Srf · 9 games
Snapfiresignature
7e · 9 games
Beastmastersignature
Echo · 8 games
Roar Gaming
Snapfire
CatYou · 16 games
Disruptoroften banned
RedPanda · 12 games
Abaddonoften banned
Ulu · 9 games
Jakiro
RedPanda · 9 games
Marssignature
生死 · 9 games
Pangolieroften banned
生死 · 9 games
Queen of Painoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 9 games
Shadow Demon
CatYou · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
670 picks · 322 bans
Disruptor
565 picks · 578 bans
Hoodwink
429 picks · 226 bans
Puck
406 picks · 1156 bans
Mars
382 picks · 643 bans
Tusk
358 picks · 257 bans
Pugna
353 picks · 400 bans
Warlock
352 picks · 157 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 56%
Hero pool strength55% Tearlaments
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total66% Tearlaments
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:11
Tearlaments 61%Roar Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on Tearlaments — the game was taken by Tearlaments in 37:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernautpoyoyo
GyrocopterUlu
Nature's Prophet7e
Ember SpiritButterflyEffect
BristlebackSrf
Centaur Warrunner生死
Naga Sirenzzq
Spirit BreakerCatYou
HoodwinkTK
SnapfireRedPanda
Game 2prediction missed12:22
Tearlaments 58%Roar Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on Tearlaments — the game was taken by Roar Gaming in 23:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlordpoyoyo
Bristleback生死
Pangolier7e
LeshracButterflyEffect
EnigmaSrf
MarciUlu
Disruptorzzq
WarlockRedPanda
TuskTK
ClockwerkCatYou
Game 3prediction correct36:15
Tearlaments 59%Roar Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Tearlaments — the game was taken by Tearlaments in 49:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet7e
AbaddonUlu
Muertapoyoyo
Storm SpiritButterflyEffect
MarsSrf
Bristleback生死
Nyx AssassinTK
HoodwinkCatYou
Silencerzzq
WarlockRedPanda
Game 4prediction missed15:40
Tearlaments 59%Roar Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Tearlaments — the game was taken by Roar Gaming in 37:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muertapoyoyo
GyrocopterUlu
Centaur WarrunnerSrf
PuckButterflyEffect
Void Spirit7e
Dawnbreaker生死
Enchantresszzq
TuskCatYou
Skywrath MageTK
DisruptorRedPanda
Game 5prediction correct19:12
Tearlaments 58%Roar Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on Tearlaments — the game was taken by Tearlaments in 41:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knightpoyoyo
JuggernautUlu
TimbersawSrf
LeshracButterflyEffect
Keeper of the Light7e
Axe生死
Naga Sirenzzq
HoodwinkCatYou
LionTK
SilencerRedPanda
Model check result
Model favoriteTearlaments · 66%
Series resultTearlaments 3:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 5