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DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Tearlamentswin 2:0
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Surge Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tearlaments

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
7e · 7 games
86%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Echo · 6 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Srf · 6 games
33%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Echo · 6 games
100%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
7e · 6 games
33%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
poyoyo · 6 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Echo · 6 games
83%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
zzq · 5 games
100%

Surge Gaming

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Irving · 3 games
100%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Hara · 3 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Irving · 3 games
67%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Hara · 2 games
100%
Sven
Svenoften banned
ukiyo · 2 games
100%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Irving · 1 game
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Irving · 1 game
100%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Hara · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
300 picks · 749 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
291 picks · 264 bans
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
271 picks · 173 bans
49%
Pugna
Pugna
262 picks · 283 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
259 picks · 702 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
254 picks · 243 bans
46%
Marci
Marci
253 picks · 709 bans
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
250 picks · 581 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 63%
Hero pool strength52% Tearlaments
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Tearlaments
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:6
Tearlaments 68%Surge Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on Tearlaments — the game was taken by Tearlaments in 26:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinpoyoyo
58% · 147 games50% · 96 games
Ursaukiyo
Ursa
Primal Beast
Primal BeastEcho
50% · 168 games45% · 335 games
PangolierNight
Pangolier
Mars
MarsSrf
48% · 148 games61% · 184 games
MagnusIrving
Magnus
Snapfire
Snapfire7e
36% · 97 games50% · 90 games
SilencerHara
Silencer
Enchantress
Enchantresszzq
50% · 145 games
Game 2prediction correct33:9
Tearlaments 68%Surge Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on Tearlaments — the game was taken by Tearlaments in 39:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidpoyoyo
53% · 24 games53% · 59 games
Svenukiyo
Sven
Sand King
Sand KingEcho
52% · 102 games52% · 87 games
EarthshakerIrving
Earthshaker
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSrf
50% · 103 games44% · 117 games
Primal BeastNight
Primal Beast
Enchantress
Enchantresszzq
53% · 108 games43% · 98 games
WarlockHara
Warlock
Grimstroke
Grimstroke7e
53% · 24 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTearlaments · 83%
Series resultTearlaments 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2