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ACL X ESL Challenger China · BO3
result vs prediction
Tearlamentsloss 0:2
series probability
9%91%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Tideboundwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tearlaments

Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
poyoyo · 2 games
0%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
zzq · 1 game
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Echo · 1 game
100%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
7e · 1 game
0%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
Srf · 1 game
100%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Srf · 1 game
0%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
zzq · 1 game
100%
Jakiro
Jakiro
zzq · 1 game
0%

Team Tidebound

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 29 games
76%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
y` · 26 games
69%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
shiro · 16 games
69%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NothingToSay · 16 games
38%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 15 games
53%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
shiro · 15 games
60%
Muerta
Muerta
y` · 13 games
46%
Sand King
Sand King
Faith_bian · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
450 picks · 667 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
414 picks · 409 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
350 picks · 723 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
325 picks · 618 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
315 picks · 523 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
313 picks · 187 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
301 picks · 588 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
295 picks · 273 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 56%
Hero pool strength59% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct3:21
Tearlaments 23%Team Tidebound 77%
The model gave 77% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 25:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerpoyoyo
50% · 99 games46% · 182 games
Terrorbladeshiro
Terrorblade
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritEcho
45% · 227 games50% · 76 games
TinkerNothingToSay
Tinker
Bristleback
BristlebackSrf
57% · 218 games55% · 176 games
Centaur WarrunnerFaith_bian
Centaur Warrunner
Ringmaster
Ringmaster7e
46% · 159 games49% · 277 games
Jakiroy`
Jakiro
Night Stalker
Night Stalkerzzq
51% · 96 games49% · 88 games
Nyx AssassinpLAnet
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct19:31
Tearlaments 22%Team Tidebound 78%
The model gave 78% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 36:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Underlord
Underlordpoyoyo
45% · 94 games57% · 106 games
Nature's Prophetshiro
Nature's Prophet
Monkey King
Monkey KingEcho
53% · 244 games48% · 164 games
DoomFaith_bian
Doom
Sand King
Sand KingSrf
52% · 255 games45% · 254 games
PangolierNothingToSay
Pangolier
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition7e
58% · 100 games47% · 105 games
Silencery`
Silencer
Ringmaster
Ringmasterzzq
41% · 125 games52% · 189 games
WindrangerpLAnet
Windranger
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 91%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2