DreamLeague Season 26. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Tech Free Gamingloss 0:2series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Essencewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tech Free Gaming
Invokeroften banned
MamangDaya · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
TraVins · 1 game
Silencer
Varizh · 1 game
Tidehunteroften banned
db- · 1 game
Tinyoften banned
dalul · 1 game
Team Essence
Clockwerk
NARMAN · 3 games
Linaoften banned
Armel · 3 games
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Raven · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Armel · 2 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Ponyo · 2 games
Tinyoften banned
Raven · 2 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Raven · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
518 picks · 713 bans
Muerta
427 picks · 312 bans
Phoenix
426 picks · 698 bans
Clockwerk
409 picks · 399 bans
Bristleback
378 picks · 869 bans
Magnus
377 picks · 997 bans
Phantom Assassin
377 picks · 643 bans
Pangolier
364 picks · 506 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 46%
Hero pool strength54% Tech Free Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Team Essence
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:33
Tech Free Gaming 44%Team Essence 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Essence — the game was taken by Team Essence in 50:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingTraVins
Anti-MageAkashi
TinyMamangDaya
Storm SpiritMac
Sand Kingdb-
JakiroPonyo
Windrangerdalul
PugnaVarizh
Game 2prediction correct14:42
Tech Free Gaming 44%Team Essence 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Essence — the game was taken by Team Essence in 28:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinTraVins
Storm SpiritMac
Night Stalkerdb-
WeaverAkashi
Dragon KnightMamangDaya
Shadow ShamanPonyo
Muertadalul
Ancient ApparitionVarizh
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Essence · 64%
Series resultTeam Essence 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2