PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTTeklawin 2:1
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
InterActive Philippinesloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tekla
Dragon Knight
Yowe · 2 games
Medusaoften banned
Abat · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
Yowe · 1 game
Slarkoften banned
Abat · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
Abat · 1 game
InterActive Philippines
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nishababy · 4 games
Puckoften banned
Nishababy · 4 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Kimizu · 3 games
Earthshakeroften banned
Nishababy · 2 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Nishababy · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Nishababy · 2 games
Doomoften banned
Kimizu · 1 game
Dragon Knight
Nishababy · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
426 picks · 395 bans
Snapfire
402 picks · 204 bans
Puck
346 picks · 893 bans
Pugna
319 picks · 363 bans
Warlock
284 picks · 138 bans
Tusk
283 picks · 228 bans
Batrider
277 picks · 673 bans
Queen of Pain
276 picks · 835 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 36%
Hero pool strength54% Tekla
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Tekla
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:37
Tekla 58%InterActive Philippines 42%
The model gave 58% on Tekla — the game was taken by Tekla in 44:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendAbat
Nature's ProphetNishababy
Void SpiritYowe
DawnbreakerKimizu
Game 2prediction missed30:40
Tekla 57%InterActive Philippines 43%
The model gave 57% on Tekla — the game was taken by InterActive Philippines in 50:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightYowe
TimbersawKimizu
Shadow FiendAbat
Sand KingNishababy
Game 3prediction correct40:15
Tekla 58%InterActive Philippines 42%
The model gave 58% on Tekla — the game was taken by Tekla in 34:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterAbat
Primal BeastKimizu
Storm SpiritYowe
BeastmasterNishababy
Model check result
Model favoriteTekla · 65%
Series resultTekla 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3