Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Tempestloss 1:2series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 1:2
beastcoastwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tempest
No games played over 6 months.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
505 picks · 450 bans
Mars
494 picks · 694 bans
Bane
464 picks · 286 bans
Dragon Knight
434 picks · 533 bans
Sand King
403 picks · 555 bans
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 641 bans
Pangolier
375 picks · 626 bans
Grimstroke
361 picks · 318 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 45%
Hero pool strength50% Tempest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:33
Tempest 18%beastcoast 82%
The model gave 82% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 39:58.
Game 2prediction correct59:21
Tempest 18%beastcoast 82%
The model gave 82% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 45:44.
Game 3prediction correct12:46
Tempest 18%beastcoast 82%
The model gave 82% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 24:55.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 82%
Series resultbeastcoast 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3