Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Tempestwin 2:1series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:1
SG e-sportsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tempest
No games played over 6 months.
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
502 picks · 437 bans
Mars
457 picks · 685 bans
Dragon Knight
428 picks · 537 bans
Bane
410 picks · 290 bans
Pangolier
356 picks · 593 bans
Storm Spirit
348 picks · 569 bans
Chaos Knight
335 picks · 645 bans
Ember Spirit
333 picks · 625 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 58%
Hero pool strength50% Tempest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% SG e-sports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:15
Tempest 35%SG e-sports 65%
The model gave 65% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 34:36.
Game 2prediction correct16:37
Tempest 35%SG e-sports 65%
The model gave 65% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 37:05.
Game 3prediction correct37:17
Tempest 35%SG e-sports 65%
The model gave 65% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 40:03.
Model check result
Model favoriteSG e-sports · 65%
Series resultTempest 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3