ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Tempestloss 0:2series probability
12%88%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tempest
No games played over 6 months.
Thunder Awaken
Snapfiresignature
Sacred · 24 games
Marssignature
DarkMago · 22 games
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 21 game
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 19 games
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 18 games
Weaversignature
Sacred · 16 games
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 15 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Matthew · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
611 picks · 462 bans
Puck
429 picks · 929 bans
Mars
364 picks · 589 bans
Snapfire
358 picks · 184 bans
Dawnbreaker
344 picks · 396 bans
Dragon Knight
343 picks · 463 bans
Bane
319 picks · 197 bans
Ember Spirit
304 picks · 584 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 63%
Hero pool strength67% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total88% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct2:35
Tempest 12%Thunder Awaken 88%
The model gave 88% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 25:14.
Game 2prediction correct16:44
Tempest 12%Thunder Awaken 88%
The model gave 88% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 28:49.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 88%
Series resultThunder Awaken 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2