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DreamLeague Season 27. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
the bugwin 2:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Exotericloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

the bug

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 1 game
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nyx · 1 game
0%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Nyx · 1 game
0%
Muerta
Muerta
bgod · 1 game
0%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
empyrean5 · 1 game
0%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
Boris · 1 game
0%
Techies
Techies
bgod · 1 game
0%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 1 game
0%

Team Exoteric

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
290 picks · 685 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
289 picks · 184 bans
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
255 picks · 643 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
255 picks · 251 bans
46%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
251 picks · 107 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
250 picks · 214 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
247 picks · 537 bans
58%
Marci
Marci
243 picks · 581 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Team Exoteric
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% the bug
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:19
the bug 51%Team Exoteric 49%
The model gave 51% on the bug — the game was taken by the bug in 30:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaBoris
40% · 39 games52% · 165 games
Sand KingSteelborco
Sand King
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritiAnnihilate
51% · 61 game
Rubick
RubickFrancisLee
45% · 16 games
Clockwerk
Clockwerkempyrean5
57% · 49 games
Game 2prediction missed32:43
the bug 55%Team Exoteric 45%
The model gave 55% on the bug — the game was taken by Team Exoteric in 46:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordBoris
82% · 7 games45% · 171 game
DawnbreakerSteelborco
Dawnbreaker
Puck
PuckiAnnihilate
55% · 60 games
Disruptor
DisruptorFrancisLee
53% · 32 games
Phoenix
Phoenixempyrean5
45% · 72 games
Game 3prediction correct44:16
the bug 53%Team Exoteric 47%
The model gave 53% on the bug — the game was taken by the bug in 31:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterBoris
47% · 43 games53% · 107 games
Ogre MagiSteelborco
Ogre Magi
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritiAnnihilate
41% · 23 games
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonFrancisLee
56% · 32 games
Warlock
Warlockempyrean5
46% · 9 games
Model check result
Model favoritethe bug · 55%
Series resultthe bug 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3