ESL One Birmingham 2026. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs predictionTBthe bugwin 1:0
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:0
TSTeam Slayersloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
the bug
Gyrocopteroften banned
Boris · 5 games
Pudge
Newsham · 5 games
Pugna
empyrean5 · 5 games
Disruptor
empyrean5 · 4 games
Earthshaker
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 4 games
Phoenix
empyrean5 · 4 games
Puckoften banned
iAnnihilate · 4 games
Queen of Painoften banned
iAnnihilate · 4 games
Team Slayers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
545 picks · 745 bans
Tusk
487 picks · 351 bans
Dragon Knight
465 picks · 638 bans
Centaur Warrunner
439 picks · 543 bans
Shadow Demon
372 picks · 643 bans
Gyrocopter
359 picks · 552 bans
Mars
348 picks · 465 bans
Hoodwink
347 picks · 157 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 33%
Hero pool strength61% Team Slayers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% the bug
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
the bug 52%Team Slayers 48%
The model gave 52% on the bug — the game was taken by the bug.
Model check result
Model favoritethe bug · 52%
Series resultthe bug 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1