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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
the bugloss 0:2
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

the bug

Sven
Sven
Boris · 4 games
75%
Warlock
Warlock
empyrean5 · 3 games
33%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
empyrean5 · 2 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
iAnnihilate · 2 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Boris · 2 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
empyrean5 · 2 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
iAnnihilate · 2 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
empyrean5 · 2 games
100%

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 36 games
56%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
yamich · 29 games
55%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Se · 25 games
40%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Pablo · 24 games
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 24 games
42%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Nefrit · 23 games
61%
Rubick
Rubick
Pablo · 23 games
52%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Se · 22 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
537 picks · 275 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
491 picks · 495 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
369 picks · 1014 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
333 picks · 380 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
316 picks · 148 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
315 picks · 153 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
314 picks · 532 bans
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
305 picks · 500 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct4:25
the bug 41%Zero Tenacity 59%
The model gave 59% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 24:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinBoris
52% · 206 games50% · 190 games
UrsaKami
Ursa
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightiAnnihilate
51% · 297 games46% · 300 games
Storm SpiritMirage
Storm Spirit
Mars
MarsITALIANO GANGSTA
47% · 191 game49% · 204 games
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
Centaur Warrunner
Snapfire
SnapfireNewsham
50% · 329 games55% · 139 games
Naga SirenSe
Naga Siren
Silencer
Silencerempyrean5
56% · 137 games44% · 327 games
HoodwinkJeezy
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct14:35
the bug 41%Zero Tenacity 59%
The model gave 59% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 34:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterBoris
51% · 255 games55% · 285 games
DoomKami
Doom
Dark Seer
Dark SeerITALIANO GANGSTA
44% · 190 games49% · 214 games
Shadow FiendMirage
Shadow Fiend
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightiAnnihilate
49% · 293 games54% · 257 games
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
Centaur Warrunner
Warlock
Warlockempyrean5
48% · 282 games53% · 234 games
SnapfireJeezy
Snapfire
Tusk
TuskNewsham
49% · 342 games47% · 372 games
JakiroSe
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 67%
Series resultZero Tenacity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2