ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
The Covenantwin 2:1series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Advance Esportsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The Covenant
No games played over 6 months.
Advance Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
422 picks · 525 bans
Clockwerk
371 picks · 362 bans
Pangolier
321 picks · 447 bans
Luna
311 picks · 362 bans
Enchantress
300 picks · 568 bans
Dark Willow
272 picks · 144 bans
Dragon Knight
260 picks · 345 bans
Shadow Demon
255 picks · 945 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% The Covenant
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Advance Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
The Covenant 29%Advance Esports 71%
The model gave 71% on Advance Esports — the game was taken by Advance Esports.
Game 2prediction missed
The Covenant 29%Advance Esports 71%
The model gave 71% on Advance Esports — the game was taken by The Covenant.
Game 3prediction missed
The Covenant 29%Advance Esports 71%
The model gave 71% on Advance Esports — the game was taken by The Covenant.
Model check result
Model favoriteAdvance Esports · 71%
Series resultThe Covenant 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3