DreamLeague Season 25. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
The Covenantwin 2:1series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
CriTicS Esportsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The Covenant
No games played over 6 months.
CriTicS Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
389 picks · 493 bans
Muerta
375 picks · 289 bans
Tusk
361 picks · 391 bans
Pangolier
340 picks · 550 bans
Batrider
320 picks · 383 bans
Beastmaster
317 picks · 719 bans
Lion
312 picks · 151 bans
Phoenix
292 picks · 264 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% The Covenant
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% CriTicS Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:43
The Covenant 47%CriTicS Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on CriTicS Esports — the game was taken by CriTicS Esports in 55:01.
Game 2prediction missed36:24
The Covenant 47%CriTicS Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on CriTicS Esports — the game was taken by The Covenant in 38:22.
Game 3prediction missed44:11
The Covenant 47%CriTicS Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on CriTicS Esports — the game was taken by The Covenant in 26:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteCriTicS Esports · 53%
Series resultThe Covenant 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3