Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
The Cutwin 2:1series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 2:1
5RATFORCESTAFFloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The Cut
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 9 games
Techies
bgod · 9 games
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 8 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 8 games
Bane
Overlom · 7 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 7 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 7 games
Hoodwink
bgod · 6 games
5RATFORCESTAFF
Abaddonsignature
albinozebra · 8 games
Pangoliersignature
red2 · 8 games
Bane
Overlom · 7 games
Storm Spiritsignature
red2 · 7 games
Hoodwink
Giant · 5 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Giant · 5 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Lil_Nick · 5 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
493 picks · 444 bans
Mars
487 picks · 685 bans
Bane
461 picks · 282 bans
Dragon Knight
437 picks · 515 bans
Sand King
412 picks · 567 bans
Storm Spirit
399 picks · 652 bans
Pangolier
374 picks · 606 bans
Grimstroke
353 picks · 310 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)24% vs 75%
Hero pool strength67% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total75% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:22
The Cut 35%5RATFORCESTAFF 65%
The model gave 65% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by The Cut in 54:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SpectreScourge McDuck
Juggernautdnm
Necrophoshigh_shaggy
TinyLil_Nick
UnderlordRajjix
Death ProphetSpeeed
Zeusbgod
GrimstrokeGiant
ClockwerkJubei
Crystal Maidenalbinozebra
Game 2prediction correct17:24
The Cut 34%5RATFORCESTAFF 66%
The model gave 66% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 40:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ClinkzScourge McDuck
Alchemistdnm
Puckhigh_shaggy
BeastmasterLil_Nick
Zeusbgod
Void SpiritSpeeed
MarciJubei
HoodwinkGiant
70% · 46 games
Abaddonalbinozebra
Game 3prediction missed34:25
The Cut 34%5RATFORCESTAFF 66%
The model gave 66% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by The Cut in 48:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackScourge McDuck
Phantom Assassindnm
Ember Spirithigh_shaggy
PudgeSpeeed
AbaddonRajjix
BeastmasterLil_Nick
Skywrath Magebgod
HoodwinkGiant
ClockwerkJubei
Crystal Maidenalbinozebra
Model check result
Model favorite5RATFORCESTAFF · 75%
Series resultThe Cut 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3