Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
The Cutloss 1:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Another NA Teamwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The Cut
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 11 games
Disruptor
empyrean5 · 8 games
Hoodwink
bgod · 8 games
Silencersignature
empyrean5 · 8 games
Death Prophetsignature
high_shaggy · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
high_shaggy · 7 games
Skywrath Magesignature
bgod · 7 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Chives · 5 games
Another NA Team
Tusk
The Warden · 10 games
Silencer
FeelinG · 9 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
USH · 8 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
RRL · 7 games
Disruptorsignature
FeelinG · 6 games
Marsoften banned
USH · 6 games
Tiny
The Warden · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
RRL · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1001 picks · 698 bans
Tiny
649 picks · 482 bans
Nature's Prophet
596 picks · 944 bans
Tusk
540 picks · 428 bans
Disruptor
538 picks · 398 bans
Snapfire
533 picks · 368 bans
Death Prophet
514 picks · 1198 bans
Clockwerk
505 picks · 381 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Another NA Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% The Cut
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:11
The Cut 50%Another NA Team 50%
The model gave 50% on The Cut — the game was taken by The Cut in 32:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirithigh_shaggy
DoomUSH
SpectreScourge McDuck
UrsaArgius
Sand KingITALIANO GANGSTA
LeshracRRL
Skywrath Magebgod
TinyThe Warden
Ancient ApparitionJubei
EnchantressFeelinG
Game 2prediction correct38:41
The Cut 49%Another NA Team 51%
The model gave 51% on Another NA Team — the game was taken by Another NA Team in 57:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordScourge McDuck
Templar AssassinArgius
Void Spirithigh_shaggy
SnapfireRRL
BeastmasterITALIANO GANGSTA
Legion CommanderUSH
Hoodwinkbgod
TuskFeelinG
Treant ProtectorJubei
DisruptorThe Warden
Game 3prediction correct6:35
The Cut 49%Another NA Team 51%
The model gave 51% on Another NA Team — the game was taken by Another NA Team in 22:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordScourge McDuck
Templar AssassinArgius
Ember Spirithigh_shaggy
BatriderRRL
BroodmotherITALIANO GANGSTA
Nature's ProphetUSH
Hoodwinkbgod
Earth SpiritThe Warden
IoJubei
SilencerFeelinG
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Cut · 52%
Series resultAnother NA Team 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3