Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
The Cutwin 2:1series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:1
CDUB Esportsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The Cut
Bristleback
Scourge McDuck · 8 games
Hoodwink
bgod · 7 games
Silencer
empyrean5 · 7 games
Disruptor
empyrean5 · 5 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Chives · 5 games
Queen of Painoften banned
high_shaggy · 5 games
Rubick
Save · 5 games
Spirit Breaker
Chives · 5 games
CDUB Esports
Rubicksignature
AfrOmoush · 12 games
Beastmasteroften banned
islA · 7 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Double King · 6 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Double King · 5 games
Hoodwink
Sanctified · 5 games
Snapfire
Sanctified · 5 games
Tusk
Mark · 5 games
Broodmotheroften banned
islA · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
922 picks · 626 bans
Tiny
644 picks · 453 bans
Nature's Prophet
551 picks · 877 bans
Tusk
542 picks · 436 bans
Treant Protector
538 picks · 543 bans
Snapfire
494 picks · 333 bans
Death Prophet
474 picks · 1036 bans
Clockwerk
449 picks · 326 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 45%
Hero pool strength54% CDUB Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total61% CDUB Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:18
The Cut 44%CDUB Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on CDUB Esports — the game was taken by The Cut in 34:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinScourge McDuck
BloodseekerDouble King
BeastmasterITALIANO GANGSTA
Ember SpiritMark
Dragon Knighthigh_shaggy
TinyislA
Techiesbgod
HoodwinkSanctified
DisruptorJubei
MiranaDuster
Game 2prediction correct26:43
The Cut 44%CDUB Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on CDUB Esports — the game was taken by CDUB Esports in 41:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerScourge McDuck
Wraith KingDouble King
Invokerhigh_shaggy
DoomislA
Centaur WarrunnerITALIANO GANGSTA
Ember SpiritMark
Hoodwinkbgod
JakiroDuster
DisruptorJubei
TinySanctified
Game 3prediction missed38:19
The Cut 45%CDUB Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on CDUB Esports — the game was taken by The Cut in 42:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingScourge McDuck
Troll WarlordDouble King
Ember Spirithigh_shaggy
DoomislA
TimbersawITALIANO GANGSTA
TinyMark
Skywrath Magebgod
HoodwinkSanctified
SilencerJubei
JakiroDuster
Model check result
Model favoriteCDUB Esports · 61%
Series resultThe Cut 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3