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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
The Cutloss 0:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
CDUB Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

The Cut

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 10 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
high_shaggy · 9 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
high_shaggy · 8 games
63%
Disruptor
Disruptor
empyrean5 · 8 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
bgod · 8 games
25%
Silencer
Silencersignature
empyrean5 · 8 games
63%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
bgod · 8 games
75%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
high_shaggy · 6 games
83%

CDUB Esports

Rubick
Rubicksignature
AfrOmoush · 12 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
islA · 9 games
56%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Sanctified · 8 games
63%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Double King · 7 games
43%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Double King · 7 games
57%
Doom
Doomoften banned
islA · 7 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Sanctified · 7 games
29%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Sanctified · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
727 picks · 621 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
599 picks · 528 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
515 picks · 994 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
512 picks · 1270 bans
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
449 picks · 1136 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
443 picks · 912 bans
55%
Mirana
Mirana
425 picks · 223 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
418 picks · 607 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 58%
Hero pool strength51% CDUB Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total59% CDUB Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:36
The Cut 48%CDUB Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on CDUB Esports — the game was taken by CDUB Esports in 1:04:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinScourge McDuck
58% · 94 games47% · 109 games
Void SpiritMark
Void Spirit
Timbersaw
TimbersawMTD
53% · 97 games44% · 99 games
MagnusDouble King
Magnus
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magebgod
51% · 114 games47% · 36 games
BrewmasterislA
Brewmaster
Lich
Lichempyrean5
58% · 92 games47% · 105 games
Keeper of the LightSanctified
Keeper of the Light
40% · 48 games
OracleDuster
Oracle
Game 2prediction correct22:35
The Cut 47%CDUB Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on CDUB Esports — the game was taken by CDUB Esports in 32:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaScourge McDuck
64% · 63 games42% · 48 games
AbaddonDouble King
Abaddon
Batrider
BatriderMTD
46% · 164 games49% · 109 games
Void SpiritMark
Void Spirit
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magebgod
50% · 101 game49% · 61 game
Nyx AssassinislA
Nyx Assassin
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonempyrean5
49% · 40 games46% · 112 games
Keeper of the LightSanctified
Keeper of the Light
56% · 38 games
JakiroDuster
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteCDUB Esports · 59%
Series resultCDUB Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2