BTS Pro Series Season 6. Америка · BO2
result vs prediction
The Cutloss 1:1series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 1:1
D2 Hustlersloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The Cut
Void Spiritoften banned
Lil_Nick · 9 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 5 games
Timbersawoften banned
TingleK1ng · 5 games
Medusaoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 4 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
TingleK1ng · 3 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
TingleK1ng · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lil_Nick · 3 games
D2 Hustlers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
383 picks · 995 bans
Lion
382 picks · 211 bans
Mars
369 picks · 616 bans
Grimstroke
351 picks · 360 bans
Snapfire
316 picks · 183 bans
Tusk
293 picks · 221 bans
Tiny
284 picks · 194 bans
Death Prophet
283 picks · 623 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)20% vs 68%
Hero pool strength54% D2 Hustlers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% D2 Hustlers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:14
The Cut 27%D2 Hustlers 73%
The model gave 73% on D2 Hustlers — the game was taken by The Cut in 27:54.
Game 2prediction correct28:35
The Cut 27%D2 Hustlers 73%
The model gave 73% on D2 Hustlers — the game was taken by D2 Hustlers in 55:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteD2 Hustlers · 73%
Accuracy by game1 of 2