Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
The Cutwin 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Eternityloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The Cut
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 9 games
Pangolieroften banned
red2 · 9 games
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 9 games
Hoodwink
bgod · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
high_shaggy · 7 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Scourge McDuck · 6 games
Death Prophetsignature
Lil_Nick · 6 games
Marcioften banned
bgod · 5 games
Eternity
Snapfire
Moonlight · 5 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
CarJua · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
blessed kid · 3 games
Hoodwink
Moonlight · 3 games
Rubick
Aretes · 3 games
Clockwerk
Aretes · 2 games
Enchantressoften banned
Aretes · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Ezekiel · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
604 picks · 392 bans
Tusk
535 picks · 519 bans
Tiny
525 picks · 431 bans
Treant Protector
416 picks · 497 bans
Mirana
377 picks · 371 bans
Snapfire
353 picks · 188 bans
Ember Spirit
314 picks · 759 bans
Clockwerk
310 picks · 205 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 22%
Hero pool strength63% The Cut
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% The Cut
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:13
The Cut 59%Eternity 41%
The model gave 59% on The Cut — the game was taken by The Cut in 24:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackScourge McDuck
DoomSkyward
Nature's ProphetChives
BloodseekerCarJua
Queen of Painhigh_shaggy
Marsblessed kid
TinySave
SnapfireMoonlight
Disruptorempyrean5
Crystal MaidenAretes
Game 2prediction correct50:17
The Cut 60%Eternity 40%
The model gave 60% on The Cut — the game was taken by The Cut in 34:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetScourge McDuck
BloodseekerCarJua
Queen of Painhigh_shaggy
MarciSkyward
Spirit BreakerChives
Death Prophetblessed kid
TinySave
RubickAretes
Disruptorempyrean5
TuskMoonlight
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Cut · 61%
Series resultThe Cut 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2