Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
The Cutwin 2:1series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
GRIN esportsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The Cut
Silencersignature
empyrean5 · 12 games
Disruptor
empyrean5 · 11 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
high_shaggy · 10 games
Skywrath Magesignature
bgod · 10 games
Death Prophetsignature
high_shaggy · 9 games
Hoodwink
bgod · 8 games
Queen of Painsignature
high_shaggy · 8 games
GRIN esports
Disruptor
Rein · 1 game
Medusaoften banned
Rein · 1 game
Pugnaoften banned
Rein · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
698 picks · 486 bans
Techies
570 picks · 616 bans
Doom
565 picks · 1096 bans
Disruptor
555 picks · 503 bans
Beastmaster
533 picks · 1221 bans
Ember Spirit
468 picks · 1039 bans
Enchantress
461 picks · 674 bans
Pangolier
459 picks · 915 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 47%
Hero pool strength53% The Cut
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% The Cut
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:24
The Cut 60%GRIN esports 40%
The model gave 60% on The Cut — the game was taken by The Cut in 1:00:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenScourge McDuck
Shadow DemonRein
EarthshakerMTD
Techiesbgod
Silencerempyrean5
Game 2prediction missed15:41
The Cut 59%GRIN esports 41%
The model gave 59% on The Cut — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 33:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerScourge McDuck
BatriderRein
WindrangerMTD
Techiesbgod
Disruptorempyrean5
Game 3prediction correct32:13
The Cut 58%GRIN esports 42%
The model gave 58% on The Cut — the game was taken by The Cut in 38:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackScourge McDuck
BatriderRein
Ember SpiritMTD
Skywrath Magebgod
Silencerempyrean5
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Cut · 66%
Series resultThe Cut 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3