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BTS Pro Series Season 11. Америка · BO2
result vs prediction
The Cutloss 0:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Infinity Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

The Cut

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 11 games
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Giant · 9 games
44%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 8 games
50%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 8 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
dnm · 7 games
100%
Techies
Techies
bgod · 7 games
29%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 7 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
bgod · 6 games
50%

Infinity Esports

Mars
Marssignature
Valquiria · 14 games
64%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Jupiter · 13 games
46%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
mini-` · 11 games
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Jupiter · 10 games
20%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
Nuages · 9 games
44%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
mini-` · 8 games
50%
Bane
Bane
Nuages · 7 games
29%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Benny · 7 games
14%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
457 picks · 274 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
432 picks · 589 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
402 picks · 467 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
348 picks · 760 bans
54%
Sand King
Sand King
346 picks · 467 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
322 picks · 488 bans
51%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
301 picks · 438 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
294 picks · 440 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)19% vs 38%
Hero pool strength53% The Cut
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Infinity Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:24
The Cut 29%Infinity Esports 71%
The model gave 71% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 28:09.
Game 2prediction correct28:46
The Cut 29%Infinity Esports 71%
The model gave 71% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 38:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteInfinity Esports · 71%
Series resultInfinity Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2