Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
The Cutwin 2:0series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:0
KBU.USloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The Cut
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 3 games
Lunaoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 2 games
Marsoften banned
dnm · 2 games
Snapfire
Giant · 2 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Scourge McDuck · 1 game
Dark Willow
Giant · 1 game
Earthshaker
dnm · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 1 game
KBU.US
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
349 picks · 513 bans
Snapfire
313 picks · 178 bans
Bane
302 picks · 236 bans
Weaver
291 picks · 649 bans
Monkey King
258 picks · 730 bans
Tidehunter
254 picks · 395 bans
Ember Spirit
230 picks · 310 bans
Disruptor
224 picks · 146 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 70%
Hero pool strength56% The Cut
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% KBU.US
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed46:35
The Cut 39%KBU.US 61%
The model gave 61% on KBU.US — the game was taken by The Cut in 1:04:16.
Game 2prediction missed31:41
The Cut 39%KBU.US 61%
The model gave 61% on KBU.US — the game was taken by The Cut in 54:38.
Model check result
Model favoriteKBU.US · 61%
Series resultThe Cut 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2