ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
The Cutloss 1:2series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 1:2
LBLucky Birdwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The Cut
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 12 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 10 games
Techies
bgod · 10 games
Bane
Overlom · 8 games
Clockwerk
Jubei · 7 games
Necrophosoften banned
high_shaggy · 7 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Rajjix · 6 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 6 games
Lucky Bird
Pucksignature
BlackSoul · 7 games
Tiny
FrancisLee · 5 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Rises · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 3 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Rises · 3 games
Queen of Painoften banned
BlackSoul · 3 games
Tusk
FrancisLee · 3 games
Weaveroften banned
Rises · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
620 picks · 467 bans
Puck
432 picks · 940 bans
Snapfire
361 picks · 187 bans
Mars
358 picks · 586 bans
Dawnbreaker
353 picks · 411 bans
Dragon Knight
337 picks · 457 bans
Bane
316 picks · 196 bans
Marci
306 picks · 608 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)21% vs 83%
Hero pool strength66% Lucky Bird
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Lucky Bird
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:39
The Cut 32%Lucky Bird 68%
The model gave 68% on Lucky Bird — the game was taken by Lucky Bird in 41:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorScourge McDuck
LunaRises
TinyLil_Nick
PangolierBlackSoul
Void Spirithigh_shaggy
TuskFrancisLee
Skywrath Magebgod
Ancient ApparitionJubei
Game 2prediction missed32:27
The Cut 33%Lucky Bird 67%
The model gave 67% on Lucky Bird — the game was taken by The Cut in 50:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puckhigh_shaggy
Chaos KnightRises
ViperLil_Nick
Templar AssassinBlackSoul
HuskarScourge McDuck
ZeusFrancisLee
Tinybgod
Winter WyvernJubei
Game 3prediction correct19:24
The Cut 32%Lucky Bird 68%
The model gave 68% on Lucky Bird — the game was taken by Lucky Bird in 35:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophoshigh_shaggy
MedusaRises
BloodseekerScourge McDuck
PuckBlackSoul
TinyLil_Nick
SnapfireFrancisLee
DawnbreakerJubei
Skywrath Magebgod
Model check result
Model favoriteLucky Bird · 76%
Series resultLucky Bird 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3